Flyer D-lok Engl

SCI/VERKEHR Cologne 2013

DIESEL LOCOMOTIVES– GLOBAL MARKET TRENDS Forecast, Installed Bases, Manufacturers, Procurement Projects

Diesel locomotives – global market trends

DIESEL LOCOMOTIVES – GLOBAL MARKET TRENDS Forecast, Installed Bases, Suppliers, Procurement Projects This study entitled “Diesel Locomotives – Global Market Trends” provides a comprehensive overview into the structure, installed bases, procurements, manufacturers and development trends in the rail vehicle segment analysed. Based on current developments in rail transport, this study, entitled “Diesel Locomotives – Global Market Trends”, delivers an analysis and sound estimate of the market for diesel locomotives. Based on the successful preceding study from 2011 and experience from more than 2 000 projects in the field of railway technology, in the past few years SCI Verkehr has verified the central input data and optimised its forecasting methodology. We have reviewed and updated all chapters of the preceding study. In addition, SCI Verkehr has performed an improved product segmentation for valuation of installed bases and age structures. In concrete terms, this market study of diesel locomotives includes: – A regionally differentiated look at the worldwide market for diesel locomotives including an in-depth analysis of all relevant markets of the individual countries – A comprehensive analysis of the current fleet stocks concerning operational purposes, quantities and age structures as well as future procurement potential – An overview of the most important drivers behind the procurement and refurbishment – An analysis of market shares of manufacturers as well as a forecast of the vehicle demand – An overview of diesel locomotive manufacturers including a brief description of their current range of products and services – A condensed presentation of the most important fleet-specific features of diesel locomotives in diagram form – A list of operators’ vehicle fleets and the current diesel locomotive procurements in the annex to the study. All in all, the study provides a well-founded analysis of the worldwide market for diesel locomotives. The study therefore provides both companies established in the railway industry as well as active and potential operators with important information for operational and strategic planning. SCI Verkehr analyses markets from the bottom up: based upon systematic observation of the railway markets, a detailed worldwide database of the installed base and projects forms the basis for in-depth studies on the various segments of the railway industry and the most important regional focus markets. Within the scope of the continuous creation of the Multi Client Series, SCI Verkehr systematically analyses more than 100 core countries for railway technology. The study is available in German from June 2013 and in English from July 2013. Your contact: Vanessa Rühmann Marketing and Sales Phone: +49-221-93178-20 Fax: +49-221-93178-78 E-mail: [email protected]

© SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • Diesel locomotives – Global Market Trends• 3

Diesel locomotives – global market trends

CONTENTS

1

Executive Summary: The Global Market for Diesel Locomotives .......................19

1.1

Market Overview ........................................................................................................ 19

1.2

Market Environment/Transport Market ...................................................................... 19

1.3

Installed Base/Age Structure ..................................................................................... 21

1.4

Manufacturers/Products/Market Share ...................................................................... 24

1.5

Market Volume and Market Development ................................................................. 25

2

Market Delimitation and Methodology of the Study ............................................28

2.1

Objective of the Market Analysis ............................................................................... 28

2.2

Delimitation of the Railway Technology Market ........................................................ 29

2.3

Market Analysis Methodology ................................................................................... 37

3

The Market for Diesel Locomotives in Western Europe......................................41

3.1

Germany .................................................................................................................... 51

3.2

France ........................................................................................................................ 54

3.3

UK .............................................................................................................................. 56

3.4

Italy............................................................................................................................. 58

3.5

Spain and Portugal .................................................................................................... 59

4

The Market for Diesel Locomotives in Eastern Europe.......................................62

4.1

Poland ........................................................................................................................ 70

4.2

Czech Republick ........................................................................................................ 72

4.3

Romania ..................................................................................................................... 74

4.4

Turkey ........................................................................................................................ 75

5

The Market for Diesel Locomotives in Asia .........................................................78

5.1

China .......................................................................................................................... 87

5.2

India ........................................................................................................................... 89

6

The Market for Diesel Locomotives in North America ........................................91

7

The Market for Diesel Locomotives in South/Central America .........................102

4 © SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de Diesellokomotiven – weltweite Marktentwicklungen•

Diesel locomotives – global market trends

8

The Market for Diesel Locomotives in the CIS .................................................. 111

8.1

Russia ....................................................................................................................... 121

8.2

Ukraine ..................................................................................................................... 124

8.3

Kazakhstan ............................................................................................................... 126

9

The Market for Diesel Locomotives in Africa/Middle East ................................ 128

9.1

Iran ........................................................................................................................... 138

9.2

South Africa .............................................................................................................. 139

10

The Market for Diesel Locomotives in Australia/Pacific ................................... 141

Annex

Annex A: Manufacturers ................................................................................................ 150 Annex B: Fleet structures .............................................................................................. 204 2

Western Europe .................................................................................................. 204

2.1

Overview ................................................................................................................... 204

2.2

Germany ................................................................................................................... 205

2.3

France ...................................................................................................................... 206

2.4

Great Britain ............................................................................................................. 207

2.5

Italy ........................................................................................................................... 208

2.6

Spain ........................................................................................................................ 209

3

Eastern Europe ................................................................................................... 210

3.1

Overview ................................................................................................................... 210

3.2

Poland ...................................................................................................................... 211

3.3

Czech Republic ........................................................................................................ 212

3.4

Romania ................................................................................................................... 213

3.5

Turkey....................................................................................................................... 214

4

Asia ..................................................................................................................... 215

4.1

Overview ................................................................................................................... 215

© SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • Diesel locomotives – Global Market Trends• 5

Diesel locomotives – global market trends

4.2

China ........................................................................................................................ 216

4.3

India ......................................................................................................................... 217

5

North America.....................................................................................................218

5.1

Overview .................................................................................................................. 218

6

South and Central America ..................................................................................... 219

6.1

Overview .................................................................................................................. 219

7

Commonwealth of Independent States .............................................................220

7.1

Overview .................................................................................................................. 220

7.2

Russia ...................................................................................................................... 221

7.3

Ukraine ..................................................................................................................... 222

7.4

Kasachstan .............................................................................................................. 223

8

Africa/Middle East ..............................................................................................224

8.1

Overview .................................................................................................................. 224

8.2

Iran ........................................................................................................................... 225

8.3

South Africa ............................................................................................................. 226

9

Australia/Pacific..................................................................................................227

9.1

Overview .................................................................................................................. 227

Annex C: Stock of the Railway Companies ...................................................................228

6 © SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de Diesellokomotiven – weltweite Marktentwicklungen•

Diesel locomotives – global market trends

Extract from the text: Market Overview D locos

Market for After sales

Market for new Installed base vehicles

Africa/Middle East

Boom/strong growth

Units 2012

xxxx

Average development 2010−2015 (p.a.)

x%

Average age 2010 (years,rounded)

x

Average volume 2009−2011 (EUR million p.a.)

xxxx

Average development 2010−2015 (p.a.)

x%

Volatility market volume 2010−2015 (SAW)

x

Average volume 2009−2011 (EUR million p.a.)

xxxx

Average development 2010−2015 (p.a.)

x%

Volatility market volume 2010−2015 (SAW)

Weak growth

Stagnation

Development

x

Slight decline

Significant decline

Figure 1: Market overview Africa Middle East

(…) Market Environment/Transport Market Infrastructure: Operation of diesel locomotives is very widespread in the region of Africa/Middle East. Only the following countries have electrified lines: (…) Development of rail transport performance in Africa/Middle East 2007 to 2012 [index 2007 = 100] 120

110

100

90 100 = 63 billion Pkm 100 = 145 billion tkm

80 2007

2008

2009

Pkm rail passenger transport

2010

2011

2012

tkm rail freight transport © SCI Verkehr GmbH

(…)

© SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • Diesel locomotives – Global Market Trends• 7

Figure 2: Rail transport performance and development Africa/Middle East in the period 2007– 2012

Diesel locomotives – global market trends

Rail passenger transport: (…) Rail freight transport: (…) Installed base/age structure Around 5 200 diesel locomotives are being operated in Africa and the Middle East. (…) Installed base Africa/Middle East [number of diesel locomotives]

Middle/East

xx %

South Africa xx % Northern Africa

xx%

Sub-Saharan Africa Southern Africa xx %

in total: ~ 5 200 diesel locomotives

xx %

Figure 3: Installed base overview of diesel locomotives by subregions in Africa/Middle East (number of locomotives)

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

(…) Installed base Africa/Middle East [Units Diesel locomotives]

Abbildung 4: Installed base Africa/ Middle East

South Africa Iran Egypt Algeria Iraq Tunisia Syria Nigeria Zimbabwe Saudi Arabia Israel Kenya Tanzania Other countries 0

500 Mainline

Shunting

1 000 Light Shunting

8 © SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de Diesellokomotiven – weltweite Marktentwicklungen•

1 500 © SCI Verkehr GmbH

Diesel locomotives – global market trends

The majority of the vehicles are operated in rail freight transport, with only a few exclusively operated in passenger transport. 60% of locomotives operated are mainline locomotives which serve the long lines between mines, industrial areas and sea ports. The maximum speed of the mainline locomotives is almost exclusively limited to 100 km/h (or less) due to the infrastructure conditions in the market region. Segments of the installed base [~5 200 diesel locomotives] Africa/Middle East

Operational field of the mainline fleet [~x xxx diesel locomotives] Africa/Middle East

x% x% xx% xx% xx% xx%

Freight transport Passenger transport Mainline

Shunting

Light Shunting

Passenger and freight transport

Figure 5: Segments of the diesel locomotive fleet/detail operational fields mainline locomotives (number of locomotives)

In the last five years, only diesel-electric traction was procured due to the advantages of the more robust construction. The majority of the diesel-hydraulic locomotives are shunting locomotives. (…) Age structure of the fleet [number of diesel locomotives] Africa/Middle East 1.500

1.000

500

0 No info

Before 1973

1973− 1977

Mainline

1978− 1982

1983− 1987

Shunting

1988− 1992

1993− 1997

1998− 2002

2003− 2007

2008− 2012

Light Shunting © SCI Verkehr GmbH

© SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • Diesel locomotives – Global Market Trends• 9

Figure 7: Age structure diesel locomotives Africa/Middle East 2012 (number of locomotives)

Diesel locomotives – global market trends

Manufacturers/Products/Market Shares In the last five years, GE sold the most diesel locomotives in the region. Market shares of the manufacturers 2008 to 2012 Africa/Middle East x %x %

x%

GE EMD Siemens

x%

CSR CNR

x% xx %

DLW RRL Grindrod

xx%

Vossloh

Figure 8: Market shares diesel locomotives Africa/Middle East in the period 2008– 2012 (number of locomotives)

in total xxx Lokomotiven

xx %

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

(…) Market volume and market development The current market volume for new diesel locomotives in Africa/the Middle East is around EUR xxx million p.a.; for after-sales services, around EUR xxx million. This market development is influenced by the following drivers: Driver of development

Brief description

Infrastructure

xxxx

Transport demand

xxxx

Investment funds

xxxx

Fleet structure

xxxx

Relevance Five-year trend

Important Current and Planned Procurement Projects Country

Type

Units

Power [kW]

Delivery

Remarks

AE

SD70ACS

7

3400

2012

EMD supplies Etihad Rail with seven SD70ACS heavyhaul freight locomotives for the first phase of its national railway programme. The locomotives are to be delivered in 2012,

AO

GE locomotives

100

n/a

2013 – 2015

Angola has signed an agreement with GE to buy 100 locomotives and get technical assistance for its national airliner TAAG from GE.

…

…

…

…

…

….

10 © SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de Diesellokomotiven – weltweite Marktentwicklungen•

Diesel locomotives – global market trends

ANNEX A: EXAMPLE Wabtec Corporation Overview Company headquarters:

Wilmerding, PA (USA)

Shareholders:

100 % widely held stock

Management:

Al Neupaver (CEO)

Employees (2013):

9 253

Turnover (2012):

EUR 1.9 billion (USD 2.4 billion; approx. 5-10% from the sale of new vehicles)

Profits (2012):

EUR 196 million (net income)

Wabtec Corporation (Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation) is an American company, which was founded in November 1999 from the merger of Westinghouse Air Brake Company and MotivePower Industries. The company’s headquarters is in Wilmerding (Pennsylvania). Around 5 000 employees are working in more than 40 plants worldwide. In July 2008 Wabtec Corporation acquired POLI S.p.A, an Italian manufacturer for disc brake systems for rail vehicles. The company’s performance in 2012 was very strong, and it is anticipating another record year in 2013 with revenue growth between 8 and 10%. In the 1990s MotivePower Industries expanded massively through acquisitions of leading component manufacturers and increased its added value and expertise. Wabtec Corporation today manufactures locomotives and freight wagons and passenger coaches for transit services. Wabtec covers all fields in the locomotive segment including maintenance, refurbishment/modernization and new vehicles. New vehicles are manufactured in Boise (Idaho, US). With Wabtec Rail Limited in Manchester (UK), Wabtec has a site in Europe for all areas of after-sales services. The products by Wabtec cover all performance ranges up to 3 000kW. Wabtec manufactures locomotives for commuter and long-distance passenger transport and for freight transport (mainly for shunting). Wabtec Corp announced the EUR 37 million (USD 48 million) acquisition of diesel engine and industrial locomotive supplier LH Group on 2nd October 2012. The LH Group companies are to become part of Wabtec Rail Group, which includes Wabtec Rail Ltd, Wabtec Rail Scotland and Brush Traction. Based at Barton under Needwood in Staffordshire, In 2007 Hunslet, part of the LH group, began developing a new family of locomotives ranging from shunters to vehicles weighing up to 100 tons. The first locomotive of the new class, the DH60C, a 3 axle C diesel hydraulic shunting locomotive was unveiled in July 2010. Production sites Wabtec’s new vehicles are manufactured in Boise (Idaho, US). With Wabtec Rail Limited in Manchester (UK), the company has a site in Europe for all areas of after-sales services. Hunslet’s facilities are located near Leeds (UK). Country

Site

Vehicles

USA

Boise

D-Loco

UK

Leeds

D-loco

Products

MPXpress MP20B/C

Market share 2008-2012

2% (Worldwide) 6% (North America)

Comment Employees (2011): 650 Production capacities: 50 locomotives p.a. (SCI est.) Employees (2012): ~50 Production capacity: 20 locomotives p.a. (SCI est.) Comment – MPXpress: MPXpress locomotives are diesel-electric locomotives for commuter transport. They have been designed with regard to safety aspects and cover performances of up to 3 000 kW. The maximum speed is around 170 km/h. – MP20B/C: The MP20B and C locomotives from Wabtec are genset shunting locomotives which are manufactured in the production sites in Boise. The two versions have a power of 1 460 kW and achieve different tractive forces due to their different size and weight.

© SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • Diesel locomotives – Global Market Trends• 11

Diesel locomotives – global market trends

ANNEX B: EXAMPLE GERMANY Installed Base/Operator

Delivery 2008 – 2012/Operator

Installed Base / Operator [Number of Units]

Delivery / Operator [Number of Units]

DB AG

DB AG

EHG

VPS

RBH

BASF AG

MEG

ALS

HGK

HGK

others

Other Operator

0

500

1 000 Mainline

1 500

2 000

0

2 500

25

50

75

Mainline

Shunting

100

125

Shunting

150

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

Installed Base/Age distribution

Delivery 2008 – 2012/Market Shares

Installed Base / Age distribution [Number of Units]

Delivery / Market Shares [Number of Units]

2.000 Voith

9%

Vossloh

1.500

7% EMD

39 %

8%

1.000

ALSTOM Bombardier

12 %

500

Other Manufacturers

In total: ~ 260 D-Locos

0 No info

Before 1972

19731977

19781982

19831987

Mainline

19881992

19931997

19982002

Shunting

20032007

25 %

20082012

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

Installed Base/Power installed

Delivery 2008 – 2012/ Power installed Delivery 2008 - 2012 / Power Installed

Installed Base /Power installed

5% 23 %

under 1 MW

17 % <1 %

1-1,9 MW

under 1 MW

19 % 1-1,9 MW

41 % 8%

2,0 -2,9 MW 2,0 -2,9 MW

3 -4,9 MW 3 -4,9 MW

No Info

33 %

In total: ~ 3700 units

53 %

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

12 © SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de Diesellokomotiven – weltweite Marktentwicklungen•

In total: ~ 260 units

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

Diesel locomotives – global market trends

ANNEX C: EXAMPLE Country

Operator

Units

Delivery

Africa/Middle East

Region

South Africa

Sheltam Grindrod Rail C30-EMP & Locomotive Services

Type

Main supplier

20

2007-2008

General Electric

Africa/Middle East

South Africa

Surtees Group

SDD2

2

2005-2005

CSR

Africa/Middle East

South Africa

TFR

33-000/GE U20C

28

1965-1966

GETS

Africa/Middle East

South Africa

TFR

33200/GL26MC

3

1966-1968

General Motors-EMD

Africa/Middle East

South Africa

TFR

33-400/GE U20C

14

1968-1970

GETS

Africa/Middle East

South Africa

TFR

34-000/GE U26C

40

1971-1972

GETS

Africa/Middle East

South Africa

TFR

34200/GT26MC

46

1972-1972

General Motors-EMD

Africa/Middle East

South Africa

TFR

35-000/U15C

48

1972-1973

GETS

Africa/Middle East

South Africa

TFR

91-000/UM6B

17

1973-1973

GETS

Africa/Middle East

South Africa

TFR

34-400/U26C

86

1973-1974

GETS

Africa/Middle East

South Africa

TFR

34-500/U26C

40

1974-1977

GETS

Africa/Middle East

South Africa

TFR

35200/GT18MC

103

1974-1976

General Motors-EMD

Africa/Middle East

South Africa

TFR

34600/GT26MC

81

1975-1976

General Motors-EMD

Africa/Middle East

South Africa

TFR

36000/SG10B

118

1975-1981

GETS

Africa/Middle East

South Africa

TFR

35600/GT18MC

76

1976-1978

General Motors-EMD

Africa/Middle East

South Africa

TFR

35-400/U15C

87

1976-1980

GETS

Africa/Middle East

South Africa

TFR

34800/GT26MC

53

1978-1980

General Motors-EMD

Africa/Middle East

South Africa

TFR

34-900/U26C

30

1979-1980

GETS

Africa/Middle East

South Africa

TFR

37-000 /GT26M2C

83

1981-1982

General Motors-EMD

Africa/Middle East

South Africa

TFR

36200/SW1002

96

1981-1984

General Motors-EMD

Africa/Middle East

South Africa

TFR

Class 39-200 (Prototype)

1

2006-2006

Transnet Rail Engineering (Transwerk)

Africa/Middle East

South Africa

TFR

39200/GT26CU3

50

2009-2010

EMD/Transnet Rail Engineering

Africa/Middle East

South Africa

TFR

C30ACi/Class 43-000

17

2011-2011

GE Transportation Systems

Africa/Middle East

South Africa

TFR

C30ACi/Class 43-000

33

2011-2012

GE Transportation Systems

Africa/Middle East

South Africa

TFR

C30ACi/Class 43-000

50

2012-2012

GE Transportation Systems

© SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • Diesel locomotives – Global Market Trends• 13

Order form MC Diesel Locomotives Please fax to: + 49 (221) 931 78-78

SCI Verkehr GmbH – Cologne Office; FAO Ms. Vanessa Ruehmann: [email protected] I would like to order the Multi Client Study “Diesel Locomotives – Global Market Trends” Quantity

Issue PDF Exemplar PDF Exemplar First copy print + additional copies ** First copy print + additional copies ** Electronic version + 1 print version Electronic version + 1 print version

Language German English German German English English German

Single price* 3.000 € 3.000 € 3.200 € 600 € 3.200 € 600 € 3.400 €

English

Total price*

3.400 € Total price*

Company

Contact person (Title, first name, surname)

Position

Address (Street, town, postcode)

VAT Number (for customers in member states of the European Union)

or other invoicing address or order number

Tel

Fax

Email I would like to pay by prepayment  / I would like to pay by credit card***  / Invoice  For payments via credit card please use the online order function on our website or contact Ms. Ruehmann: [email protected]

Date * ** ***

Signature / stamp All prices exclude delivery costs and VAT Only in combination with a first copy in the same language. Additionally 5% credit card payment charges

Orders subject to our general terms and conditions. Place of jurisdiction is Hamburg.

© SCI Verkehr GmbH Schanzenstraße 117 20357 Hamburg / Germany Tel: +49 (0) 40 5071970 Fax: +49 (0) 40 50719720 www.sci.de

Cologne Office Vor den Siebenburgen 2 50676 Cologne Germany Tel: +49 (0) 221 931 78-0 Fax: +49 (0) 221 931 78-78

Place of jurisdiction: Country court Hamburg Geschäfts-Nr. 66 HR B 56 572 Deutsche Bank Hamburg Bank code: 200 700 24 Account number: 649 173 200

Hamburg Office SCI Verkehr GmbH Schanzenstraße 117 20357 Hamburg Tel.: +49 (0)40 5071970 Fax: +49 (0)40 50719720 Cologne Office SCI Verkehr GmbH Vor den Siebenburgen 2 50676 Köln Tel.: +49 (0)221 931780 Fax: +49 (0)221 9317878 Berlin Office SCI Verkehr GmbH Novalisstraße 7 10115 Berlin Tel.: +49 (0)30 2844540 Fax: +49 (0)30 28445420

E-Mail: [email protected] www.sci.de Imprint: © SCI Verkehr GmbH