Energy Security Unit 3 Geography Edexcel Notes

Energy Security Notes

Overview Energy    

In science it is the ‘capacity to do work’ Takes various forms and it vital to human survival and development As societies become more sophisticated they consume more energy and exploit a wider range of energy types The consumption patterns in the various sectors will change

Security   

A secure energy supply is crucial to human wellbeing Considerable environmental costs in harnessing many forms of energy – global warming Challenge is to reduce our dependency on fossil fuels, cur greenhouse gas emission and find new, sustainable, sources of energy

Energy Supply, Demand and Security To what extent is the world ‘energy secure’ at present? Classifying Energy Sources 

Fossil fuels o Include oil, coal and natural gas o Can be used or combusted only once o Can only be replaced over considerable periods of geological times

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o Classified as non-renewable o During combustion they produce CO2 Non-renewable o Finite stock of resources which will run out o E.g. fossil fuels o Significant environmental impacts during extraction  E.g. oil wells, opencast mining o Greenhouse gas emissions during use and acidic emissions Renewable sources o Provide continuous flows of energy o Include wind, solar, hydroelectric, wave, tidal and geothermal o Environmental impacts  May require large areas for operation (solar arrays, wind farms)  NIMBY issues Recyclable o Can be used repeatedly if managed carefully o Biomass, nuclear o Environmental impacts  Biofuels can lead to the over use of land and this can lead to desertification and eutrophication, as well as extreme use of pesticides  Nuclear waste can cause possible radioactive effects  Nuclear explosions can have detrimental environmental effects e.g. in Chernobyl

Access to Energy Sources

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As families become richer they can afford more modern appliances Factors that control the transition from traditional to modern energy use o Energy availability  In many parts of the world modern types of energy are either not available or remain inaccessible o Energy affordability  Modern forms of energy may be a lot more expensive than traditional sources o Cultural preferences  Tradition often slows that adoption of more modern energy sources Climate o Level of consumption is influenced by the climate o Hot climate means air conditioning, cold means heating Global availability of energy resources o Not distributed evenly around the world o Access to, and consumption of, energy resources is not evenly distributed  1.4 of the world population have no access to electricity with 80% of these people living in rural areas  2.4 billion people rely on traditional biomass (wood) for cooking heating  In rural sub-Saharan Africa, many women carry 20kg of fuel wood an average of 5km/day  Energy poverty keeps people poor by limiting women’s ability to go to school earn an income o Depends on  Geology  Physical geography  Available technology  Costs of exploitation Energy Proven reserves Regions

Resource (Nonrenewable)

with richest reserves 1987

1997

Oil (thousand million barrels)

910

1069

1239

Gas (trillion m3)

106

146

177

Coal (million tonnes)

Energy Resources (Renewable) Nuclear (million tonnes oil equivalent)

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2007

847,488

Middle east and Africa Middle east, Europe and Eurasia North America, Pacific, Europe and Eurasia

Consumption

Europe, Eurasia 541 622 and North America Europe, Hydroelectrici Eurasia, ty (million North 588 709 tonnes oil America equivalent) and Asiapacific If a country has energy resources does this mean it can sustain the fuel needs of its population? o Costs in terms of processing o Extremely high demand o Energy supplies depend on the balance between demand (need) and consumption (availability/use of energy) o USA is not energy secure as it has greater demands for fuel than can be fulfilled with its reserves Big players o Oil is the most widely used fuel for energy generation o Middle East remains biggest player despite the search for new reserves

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o Saudi Arabia alone accounts for 22% of worlds proven resources o Oil gives the Middle East great political power o China has great coal reserves and builds the equivalent of two medium-sized coal-fired power stations each week o China’s coal consumption has more than doubled since 1900 o However Chinas now emits more CO2 than the USA Access to renewables o Distribution of renewable sources varies at a range of scales o Highest potential solar input towards equator – but dependent on cloud cover o Access to energy resources also varies spatially and poverty and access to electricity are related o Many renewables are intermittent energy sources, so energy must be stored or backed up by another source o Most renewable energy is constrained by physical geography  Wind  Requires wind speeds of 825 mph  Solar  Works best in areas of over 6 kwh per sq metre per day  Biomass  Requires large land area for feedstock  HEP  Suitable valleys i.e. long, deep and relatively narrow, and predicable water supply

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Fuel Poverty o If demand is greater than consumption there will not be enough energy for a population to use which can lead to energy poverty o 10% of household income is spent on energy prices  E.g. Oxford  7,086 households in fuel poverty, 12% o LICs as well as HICs but different circumstances o Generally there is some support financially in HICs (government intervention) o 2 billion people don’t have access to electricity  Absence of grid electricity systems which governments can’t afford  Rely on kerosene lamps which are  Expensive  Polluting  Unhealthy  Dangerous  2.4 billion people rely on traditional biomass for cooking and heating  In rural sub-Saharan Africa many women carry 20kg of fuel wood about 5km each day  The use of traditional biomass is killing people – 2.5 million women and children die from lung conditions each year  Energy poverty keeps people poor by limiting women’s ability to engage in education and income-generating activities

Demand for Energy 

Sources of demand

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o Transport takes nearly half of the world’s oil production o Over two thirds of coal production is used to generate electricity  Rising consumption o During the 20th century, energy demand increased tenfold o By 2050 it is expected to double and reach an annual level of around 900 exajoules o Most energy demand will be met by nonrenewable sources, namely natural gas and oil o Forecasts show a increasingly significant contribution by renewable energies o Causes  Population growth  Economic development  Rising standards of living Future trends o Future increases in energy demand are unlikely to be even across the globe o China and India are expected to have the largest rise o Countries in western Europe may reduce their demands o Energy consumption in the developing world is expected to double by 2020 o Only about 1/3 in the developed world

Energy Security  

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Vital to the functioning of a country Any country that is self-sufficient in energy resources will be secure in the sense that it will have the energy needed for its development Risks o Physical  Exhaustion of reserves  Disruption of supply lines by natural hazards o Environmental  Protests about environmental damage

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o Economic  Sudden rises in the cost of energy  Exhaustion of domestic supplies forcing increased imports of high-priced energy o Geopolitical  Political instability in energy-producing regions  Disputes or conflict of sovereignty of energy resources  Disputes over energy transmission by pipelines or cables o Sustained growth in demand for energy has led to serious concerns over the long-term availability of reliable and affordable supplies Measuring energy security o Complex to measure o Energy security index (ESI)  Availability  Amount and

longevity of each country’s domestic oil and gas supplies and its level of reliance on imported oil, gas and electricity  Diversity  The range of energy sources used in meeting each country’s energy demand  Intensity  The degree to which the economy of each country is dependent on oil and gas Levels of risk o Extreme risk  ESI < 2.5  Northern African countries, northern South America  Includes South Korea o High risk  2.5 < ESI < 5  Scattered across the globe  Include developed countries such as USA and Japan

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o Medium risk  5 < ESI < 7.5  Widespread  Europe, Asia, Australasia o Low Risk  ESI>7.5  Canada, Russia, Norway, Middle East  All are producers and exporters of oil and gas Characteristics of risk o Heavy importers show high levels of risk o Countries with substantial reserves show low levels, regardless of their own consumption o Medium-sized developed countries show medium levels of risk – possibly due to diversification o Level of risk in emerging economies is similar to that in most advanced economies o The relatively low level of risk in many African countries reflects low consumption and untapped resources o USA has a high risk due to huge consumption and imports

Impacts of Energy Insecurity What are the potential impacts of an increasingly ‘energy insecure’ world? Energy Pathways  

Since the early 1990s there has been a significant increase in the export of fuels Oil and gas o Complex global pattern of pathways and plays o The middle east exports around 15,000 barrels per day o Gas pathways tend to be localised and regional

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o Natural gas has traditionally been transported through pipelines, whereas oil is shipped o As delivery via pipelines becomes less dependable, there will be a switch towards shipping gas in takers as liquefied natural gas (LNG) Coal o There are also many coal pathways from countries as far apart as Australia and Poland o Far less coal is currently moved than oil and gas o May increase as supplies seems more dependable as less threatened by geopolitical considerations

Risks of Disruption to Supply 

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The ‘oil crisis’ of 1973 and 1980s shocked many countries into developing national and international energy policies Aimed as reducing the risks of disruption to supplies by geopolitical instability and unforeseen rises in energy prices Growing nervousness about

energy security because: o Unprecedented growth in energy demands across the globe  Growth of countries such as China and India has lead to huge demand and increased prices o Rising concern about the security of energy supply infrastructure  Higher volumes of fuel than ever before are being transported over longer distances  Under threat from terrorism, lack of capacity, wear and tear, piracy and political rivalries  To ensure safe transport huge amounts of private investment are necessary o Energy markets do not always behave as expected  Iran-Iraq war of 1980-88 had a relatively limited impact on oil supplies  However recent oil prices have jumped at the mention of strikes in Nigeria o Speculation in the futures market for oil and gas has driven prices higher

o What are the impacts of disruption to energy supplies  Fuel poverty (local) (economic and political)  A need to search for new sources/develop new routes (international)  Protests about fuel prices (local) (political)  Rising oil prices (international) (economic)  Escalating conflict e.g. between Russia and Ukraine (international) (economic and political)

Exploration of New Reserves  

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Hunt for new reserves is creating political alliances and the danger of fresh conflicts China is moving aggressively to find sources of energy imports, potentially setting up a confrontation with the USA over the dwindling resources of the middle east and Africa As fossil fuel prices rise the option of exploited resources previously considered uneconomic becomes more attractive Governments have started looking at possible indigenous sources of ‘unconventional oil’

Players 

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The most powerful players and stakeholders are OPEC members Large exporting countries outside of OPEC (Russia) are also large players A number of TNCs play a big role, including Shell and Exxon Mobil New players have emerged – major consumers e.g. China o China’s rapid industrialisation has turned it form a net exporter to a net importer of oil Consumers are often highly price sensitive and can excert pressure on politicians Governments can decide on their national energy mix and renewable policies, as well as providing subsidies and grants Environmentalists put pressure to adopt renewables and reduce carbon intensity Scientists undertake research into alternative fuels and applications as well as increasing efficiency

Energy Security and the Future What might the world’s energy future be?

Future Supply and Demand of Energy  

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Growing realisation that a glitch in world energy supplies could trigger an economic catastrophe Factors increase the likelihood of such as event (oil) o Spectacular rise in global oil consumption o Possibility that we may have reached ‘peak oil’  Prospect of declining production and rising prices  Some scientists say we reached peak oil in 2005, other argue we will reach it in 2015 or 2020 o Concentration of oil production in fewer countries as oil wells elsewhere are pumped dry o Unpredictable actions of OPEC and other players and stakeholders Factors contributing to global energy uncertainty o Future performance of global economy o Scale of global population growth o Impact of rising living standards o Size of undiscovered oil and gas reserves o Discovery of new energy technologies o The scale of the possible switch to renewable energies o Possible contribution of ‘unconventional’ oil sources o Emergent economies energy demands Peak oil  o By 2030, global consumption is expected to reach 113 million barrels of oil/day o By 2030 total global energy consumption is expected to have grown by 50%, with demand from developing countries surging by 85% o Electricity generation is expected to nearly double by 2030 o China accounts for 70% of new coal production

o Nuclear power is expected to rise by 50%, mostly in China and India o Why is oil important?  We depend on oil to fuel transport, make agricultural fertilisers and plastics o What is peak oil and have we reached it?  Peak oil theory is based on the work of Shell geologist M King Hubbert in 1950s  Peak oil is the point at which oil production worldwide meets a maximum, to be followed by a gradual decline  Peak oil may be influenced by geology, availability of technology or economic and political events  Statistics produced by BP show that oil production in at least 18 countries is in decline e.g. Norway’s production has slumped by 25% since it’s peak in 2001 o What are the consequences of reaching peak oil?  The peak is more important than the point in time oil actually runs out, because of rising prices as supply falls  After peak production, supply will decline and oil prices will rise  Using crops to create fuel can push up the price of crops and exacerbate world hunger  Given the uncertainty about peak oil, some countries are replacing conventional oil use with alternatives technologies  Many forecasters expect global oil production to fall by 3% a year after peak oil is reached. This will lead to large spikes in oil prices and may trigger recessions

Future Responses 

Business as usual o Between now and 2030  Global primary energy demand will rise by 53%, leading to a 55% increase in global energy-related CO2 emissions  Fossil fuels will remain the dominant source of energy worldwide  As the demand for electricity rises, emissions from electricity generations will account for 44% of global energy-related emissions

Coal will provide the largest incremental source of power generation, with the majority of this increase in China (55%)  Over 70% of the increase in global primary energy demand will come from developing countries Multi-energy solution o Involves meeting future energy demands from a mixture of renewable, recyclable and non-renewable sources o Rich fuel mix necessary to ensure energy security and to maintain an affordable supply o One controversial component is nuclear Energy conservation o Based on decreasing the amount of energy used o Individuals and organisations that are direct consumers of energy may want to reduce consumption o High on the political agenda for EU o Countries have targets to reduce carbon emissions and cut their energy requirements Transitioning to a fully sustainable global energy system by 2050 o Benefits of switching to renewable energy supply  Energy security and price volatility  IEA predicts that crude oil has reached its peak  The increases in oil prices are consistent with oil’s declining availability  It is a sign of scarcity that prices are so high  Other impacts  Environmental impacts and health (air pollution)  Reduced incidents such as BP oil spill  Climate change  Fossil fuels results in large increasing CO2 emissions  To stabilize global temperatures at 2 degrees, emissions need to peak before 2020 and then decline  By 2050 emission will need to be 50-60% of 190 emissions  And there must be negative emissions from 2070 o It is possible  Possible but it will be challenging says ECOFYS 

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Fossil fuels can be phased out over time while renewables take up the challenge  There has to be a rapid uptake of energy efficiency alongside a substitution of traditional with renewable sources  Fossil fuels have to have a small input (5%)  Reduced demand for raw materials and increased efficiency are key in industry  Buildings need to strongly reduce heat demand and increase electrification  Electrification is also key to sustainability in transports o Global net costs will peak below 2% of GDP and then will fall and in the long run more money will be generated than lost o It requires strong actions from all stakeholders to be realized

Effects of Increasing Energy Security 

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Key to becoming energy secure o Making greatest possible use of domestic sources of energy o Diversifying energy resources to minimise the use of fossil fuels and maximise the use of renewable sources o Ensuring guarantees of imported energy from reliable supplies and at stable prices Increasing competition for energy Oil and conflict o Major consumers are concerned to ensure the reliability of their supplies o Some believe that this was a significant factor in the 2003 invasion of Iraq o Oil was also seen as a driving force in earlier armed conflicts in the gulf region o In Africa China are competing to secure access to African oil with promises of economic aid and military protection o USA and Venezuela’s relations are becoming strained as Chavez threatened to stop selling their crude oil to the USA

o Most conflict after the Cold War has been triggered by oil.

Meeting Future Energy Needs 

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Global challenge o The International Energy Authority (IEA) estimates that $22 trillion of new investment will be needed by 2030 o There is also the global challenge of climate change and the need to develop cleaner sources of energy o Two possible ways  Carrot and stick measures such as emissions controls, carbon trading, green taxation  Develop new and radical technologies which are sustainable and bring energy security Stick and carrot o Emission controls  Kyoto 1997  2007 13 countries agreed on global cap-and-trade scheme o Emissions trading  Countries that produce less than their maximum can sell excess emissions to over-producing countries  Works on a variety of scales  Creates a ‘carbon market’ o Green taxes  Vehicle excise duty  Pollution pays

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 Government gains revenue New technologies o Offshore wind turbines  Costs 50% than on land  Wind speeds around double at sea  Less visible and audible  Could interfere with radar and pose a threat to national security  Horns Rev (North Sea off Denmark) is worlds largest  Cost €270 million but produces 160MW o Carbon storage  Captures CO2 and may allow coal to be ‘clean’  No one knows if it will work  Very expensive o Geothermal energy  In Philippines 25% from underground heat  Free, inexhaustible and available day and night  Many places have hot rocks  In many locations the heat is too deep, or has been dispersed o Biofuels  Crops, trees and algae  Grasses and trees need a lot of processing and can be turned into ethanol  Aquatic algae are trickier to grow but produce oil that requires less refining  Issues  New crops need to be developed specifically for food  The supply chain can be costly  Range of small and large scale bio-refineries need to improve logistics  Competition between food and biofuel crops for space needs to be addressed, as it may cause large scale deforestation Sustainability o Offshore wind farms, carbon capture and store and geothermal all seem to promise a high degree of sustainability o Still not economically viable o Biofuels is the most feasible but may not be sustainable in terms of impact on environmental and human wellbeing