Market Internals: With Biju Samuel

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Market Internals With Biju Samuel Explosive Buy Signal Quantitative & Alternate Strategy [email protected] | +91 22 6164 8505

11 March 2019

The Breadth & Breakout Thrust – Explosive Bull Signal Highest Bullish Alert Two of the best inflexion signals in our market internals framework were triggered last week: the Breadth Thrust and the Breakout Thrust. The rarity of these signals can be gauged from the fact the Breadth Thrust has been seen only seven times in the past while the Breakout Thrust only six times. Hence, we are at an extremely elevated bullish alert hereafter. In this report, we showcase these two signals and focus on each of the historical occurrences so that the dynamics and dimensions can be scoped. The initial alert was triggered during the first week of January when a similar Breadth Thrust was signaled on the S&P 500, followed by the Breakout Thrust 10 sessions later. This was a huge inflexion, as it was immediately preceded by capitulation of bullish sentiments of a scale, which was not been seen since January 2016. The sanctity of this signal was escalated, as it was accompanied by similar feats on the entire MSCI World universe of stocks. While these breadth formations did not develop on the EM universe, due to their extreme diversity unlike the DM, by late January they too started displaying other signs of durable uptrend characteristics, especially notable being the larger number of stocks which started rallying above their 200-dma. This is the first time since the January 2018 top, an indication the EM rally hereafter is not a bear market rally. A Breadth Thrust is an explosive swing in the market breadth from oversold to overbought. A Breakout Thrust is when more than 50% of the stocks show trend breakouts.

Elara Securities (India) Private Limited

In India, breadth expansions in the wider universe are not as frequent as in the US. Hence, such thrusts are rigorous affairs and deserve huge attention after bear trends. We have seen seven instances of Breadth Thrust in the past 20 years. This is computed on the Nifty 500 universe, which is the most important universe for the market pulse. The one-year returns after this thrust were positive on six occasions. The average one-year returns at the Nifty 500 Index level are 43%. We note returns at the stock level would be significantly large.

When the highest risk is not taking risk right now The Breakout Thrust is even rarer as we have seen only six occurrences in the past and the average returns are positive on all timeframes: one-week at 2.14%, one-month at 7.50%, three-months at 18.50%, six-months at 37.50% and one-year at 52%. This means once this signal is triggered, it makes good sense to chase the uptrend. The simultaneous occurrence of the Breadth and Breakout thrusts is seen for the first time, which makes it an extremely explosive buy signal. We have seen three instances earlier where the Breakout Thrust followed the Breadth Thrust within two months (May 2003, August 2006 and March 2009). We note these three occasions were followed by the strongest rallies in the market.

Price-taker than price-maker This is the occasion when one needs to be a price-taker as waiting for ones price can be fraught with high risk -- the risk of losing out on the beginning of one of the longest and largest rallies. This is escalated due to the simultaneous development of both signals.

Market Internals with Biju Samuel

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THE BREADTH THRUST

Breadth Thrust – Eighth Occurrence in 20 years

The Breadth Thrust is a sharp shift in market breadth from oversold to overbought in a very short span. These are impressive market turnarounds, which trigger very large uptrends. In India, breadth for a wider universe like the Nifty 500 is a rigorous affair unlike the S&P 500 in the US where breadth is generally higher probably due to preponderance of index funds for larger universes. Hence, the rarity of such signals in India and its ability to foresee robust uptrends. If we average the previous seven occasions, the one-year returns after this breadth event in the Nifty 500 is 43%. This is at the index level which would mean significantly higher returns at the stock level. Elara Securities (India) Private Limited

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Breadth Thrust 1 – April 2003 (+100%)

The market briefly slipped after the Breadth Thrust and then got into one of the largest and longest secular uptrends. After being moderately negative for a month, returns were significant over three months-, six months- and one-year period.

Elara Securities (India) Private Limited

Market Internals with Biju Samuel

12 March 2019

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Breadth Thrust 2 – April 2004 (+16%)

This the occasion when the breadth event was followed by a sharp collapse. The market stayed slightly positive for a month, followed by the six sigma event and collapse. Here also, the one-year returns were a positive 16%. But, this is the only occasion when the signal failed.

Elara Securities (India) Private Limited

Market Internals with Biju Samuel

12 March 2019

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Breadth Thrust 3 – June 2006 (+43%)

We have seen a shakeout during May-June 2006 and the subsequent turnaround was signaled by the Breadth Thrust, which was followed by the market holding its breadth for a month and then roaring into a strong uptrend.

Elara Securities (India) Private Limited

Market Internals with Biju Samuel

12 March 2019

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Breadth Thrust 4 – September 2007 (-4%)

After a correction during August 2007, we saw a Breadth Thrust on 3 September 2007. The markets accelerated thereafter, gaining 16% within a month and 34% within three months. The collapse after the January 2008 top ensued and finally one-year returns dwarfed to -4%. This is the only occasion when the signal was followed by negative one-year returns.

Elara Securities (India) Private Limited

Market Internals with Biju Samuel

12 March 2019

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Breadth Thrust 5 – December 2008 (+87%)

After the October 2008 meltdown, the late year recovery created a Breadth Thrust. The market slipped afterwards and remained subdued for nearly three months from where the bull market was launched.

Elara Securities (India) Private Limited

Market Internals with Biju Samuel

12 March 2019

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Breadth Thrust 6 – July 2009 (+25)

The sixth Breadth Thrust happened during mid-2009 from where the bull market immediately continued clocking in nearly 20% in six months and 25% in one year.

Elara Securities (India) Private Limited

Market Internals with Biju Samuel

12 March 2019

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Breadth Thrust 7 – January 2017 (+36%)

The last Breadth Thrust was in January 2017, which was the market turnaround after demonetization. The market turned one-way afterwards.

Elara Securities (India) Private Limited

Market Internals with Biju Samuel

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Breadth Thrust 8 – March 2019

Now, we are at the eighth occurrence. The average returns of the previous seven events are +43%.

Elara Securities (India) Private Limited

Market Internals with Biju Samuel

12 March 2019

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THE BREAKOUT THRUST

Breakout Thrust – Seventh Occurrence in 20 years

This time around the Breadth Thrust signal is also accompanied by another major signal, which we refer to as the Breakout Thrust. This is the only time when both the thrusts are happening simultaneously -- the highest bullish alert. Here, all the seven occurrences are marked. In subsequent slides, we highlight each of the Breakout Thrust events. One big observation is that it captures the area where the risk appetite has entered the market in a big way and that area is bid up later. Price probes refused to dip anywhere lower from that point except once in December 2002. With the signal being followed by relentless uptrend on six of seven occasions, it is apparent from a strategy perspective that all that one has to do after this signal is to chase the breakout; there is zero luxury to wait for ones price after this signal. Elara Securities (India) Private Limited

Market Internals with Biju Samuel

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Breakout Thrust 1 – July 1999 (+21%)

The Breakout Thrust is when a large number of stocks display breakout. Marked are the first occasions when more than 50% of the stocks showed breakout. This is a huge inflexion point where risk appetite enters the market in a big way. The place where this occurs gets bid up. Unlike the Breadth Thrust, the Breakout Thrust is invariably followed by continuation and/or extension of the uptrend. We note how that area transforms into a demand zone where offers are dry and demand is high. This means once this signal is delivered, one has to chase prices than wait.

Elara Securities (India) Private Limited

Market Internals with Biju Samuel

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Breakout Thrust 2 – December 2002 (+65%)

This is the only occasion when the Breakout Thrust failed. We note how that point acted as support for several months. Once that zone was broken, it became a resistance. The same area created one more Breakout Thrust five months later, which was followed by the explosive bull run.

Elara Securities (India) Private Limited

Market Internals with Biju Samuel

12 March 2019

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Breakout Thrust 3 – May 2003 (+90%)

This shows the 2003 Breakout Thrust in detail. After the thrust, the market just made one dip towards the area in the next two days. Afterwards, the market has not given any chance to anyone other than price-chasers.

Elara Securities (India) Private Limited

Market Internals with Biju Samuel

12 March 2019

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Breakout Thrust 4 – August 2006 (+25%)

The August 2006 event also highlights how it is important to buy the market right at the Breakout Thrust area. Subsequent dips were bid up aggressively right there.

Elara Securities (India) Private Limited

Market Internals with Biju Samuel

12 March 2019

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Breakout Thrust 5 – April 2009 (+80%)

ibdperf

We note how the intraday low was made right at that point on the third day, which was the last best chance to enter the market as the next brief correction happened only two months later.

Elara Securities (India) Private Limited

Market Internals with Biju Samuel

12 March 2019

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Breakout Thrust 6 – May 2014 (+19%)

ibdperf

This was the last Breakout Thrust. Breakouts started expanding months before that and more than 50% of the stocks displayed it at this point. We note how the same point became a demand driver and/or support during January 2016.

Elara Securities (India) Private Limited

Market Internals with Biju Samuel

12 March 2019

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Breakout Thrust 7 – March 2019

ibdperf

The latest incident and its rarity is that both thrusts happened simultaneously, which is a first time event; they may have extraordinary bullish portent. For the Nifty500 Index, the levels near 9200 should be bid up as we saw on 8 March. In our view, that may be that the was the last best level.

Elara Securities (India) Private Limited

Market Internals with Biju Samuel

12 March 2019

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Breadth & Breakout Thrust Combination – Fourth Occurrence in 20 years; Both simultaneous – Explosive First-Time Event

ibdperf

We note there are only three occasions when the Breadth Thrust was followed by the Breakout Thrust. Such a combination was followed by the largest bull runs; 2003, 2006 and 2009. The latest one is the first time that we have seen both happening simultaneously. This in most likelihood an inflexion of the explosive kind.

Elara Securities (India) Private Limited

Market Internals with Biju Samuel

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Nevertheless, Elara Securities (India) Private Limited or any of its affiliates is committed to provide independent and transparent recommendation to its client and would be happy to provide any information in response to specific client queries. Elara Securities (India) Private Limited or any of its affiliates have not independently verified all the information given in this Note and expressly disclaim all liability for any errors and/or omissions, representations or warranties, expressed or implied as contained in this Note. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Elara Securities (India) Private Limited or any of its affiliates, their directors and the employees may from time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document. 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