Wolfe Wave India

Wolfe Wave India Nifty and Bank Nifty Analysis Email: [email protected] NIFTY – 7th January 2011 Following up on last weeks analysis I mentioned that Nifty would head to 5900-5930 in 4-5 days. The analysis was posted on 2nd January (Saturday) and today 7th January (Friday) Nifty hit a low of 5883 & closed at 5904. The top I suggested would be at 6150 / 6170 and Nifty made a high of 6180. I have been providing updates pretty much on a daily basis. What next? I don’t seem to find much strength in the upmove – so any upmove may be limited to 6050 & 6090. These levels should be used to add to short positions. I’ve marked these out in purple. On The downside I feel more comfortable with the Red WW – Indicating 5600 or lower. The blue WW could be a long short and I would wait for wave structures to develop before entering a trade.

Bearish WW Structure

BANKNIFTY – 7th January 2011 I mentioned last week that there was No strength is this counter at all. While SBI moved up sharply this counter was still weak. I mentioned that It could test 11200 on the downside and possibly 11900 on the upside. Banknifty tested 11912 and reversed from there to test 11007. As long as the previous low holds 10977 it can possibly head back near 11200 / 500 or higher and drop again. How much? 9600!!

NIFTY - 2nd January 2011 Many mixed signals on Nifty and Bank Nifty last week. However, it seemed that Nifty would head to 6100+ and closed at 6135. The immediate targets would be 6150-6170 – I advised to go short here at these levels for a target of 5900 – 5930 in the next 4-5 days. There are negative divergences on the chart.

BANKNIFTY – 2nd January No strength is this counter at all. While SBI moved up sharply on Friday this counter still looks weak. It can test 11200 on the downside and possibly 11900 on the upside this week. I would favor the downside move this week as Nifty would help push this counter down. There are negative divergences marked out on the chart.

NIFTY – 14th December I stated yesterday that Nifty would possibly head lower to 5650- 5600 bounce back up and then head down to 5450-5500 – Short below 5880 and higher (if it heads to 6000-6100)

BANK NIFTY – 14th December Looking extremely weak. It can head down to 11000 / 10800 / 10650

NIFTY - 11 December 2010 Nifty should be a buy for now. However, something strange is going on. The previous low was somewhere at 5690 and the low yesterday was 5721. Usually it is either a 100% retracement or a 127% / 161% / 261% retracement. You can see that we did not retrace 100% so you should be on the guard and add shorts at 5780 and below aggressively. Nifty should head down to 5690 - 5500 - 5450 before moving up. I've advised to go long on Friday so keep a tight SL at 5780 and hold for possible targets of 6100. However, if 5700 is taken out I would revise the 6100 target after the waves complete. For now, hold on to your longs for 6100!

BANK NIFTY – 11 December 2010 This counter looks like it's headed up possibly to 12700-12900. I advised to go long on Friday. Again, keep a SL at 11150. Breaking below it can head down to 10600. Previously i advised to go short at 12520 and the targets were 11100 - 10800. It made a low of 10977 yesterday. One would have made 1400+ points on the downside. The opportunity now is of 1500-1800 points!!

NIFTY – 2 December 2010 Per the chart there are several wolfe waves that have formed and I've colored these seperately - Green, Blue, Pink and Red. If we go by Fibonacci retracements - 50% of the current retracement is 6015 (condition met by WW in Blue) and 61% is 6091. The current WW scenario supports 2 possibilities - 6015 and 6250 or so..If the mkt heads beyond 6091 it will test 6250 or so. The Green WW - indicates the larger trend which may play out to 6080. This means that from todays high of 6030 we should drop sharply to 5700 / 5650 (pink WW) and then head back up to 6080-6100 (Green) The Blue WW tgt is met at 6000 while one more exists (Red) which indicates 6250 + We need to wait it out and see if the mkt heads beyond 6091 - Currently mkt is over bought in the short term and may see a drop to 5650 and then a rise back to 6080-6100. Play this trend with strict stops. BANK NIFTY can head to 12550 and then head back down possibly to 11300.. and then head back up possibly to 12900