Wilkins, A Zurn Company: Demand Forecasting: Submitted By: Group-8 Section-c

WILKINS, A ZURN COMPANY: DEMAND FORECASTING SUBMITTED BY: GROUP-8 SECTION-C Kavya Gupta Kirti Dang Nandini Gupta Neha Kumari Rahul Arora Rajat Bhatia Shreyans Jain

5C ANALYSIS Company: •

Built its strength on high-quality products for the plumbing, municipal waterworks, fire production and irrigation customer markets, ranging from water pressure reducing valves and backflow preventers to anti-scald shower valves

•

Zurn Industries acquired Wilkins in 1971,

•

In 1998, Zurn merged with U.S. Industries Bath & Plumbing Products Co., and changed its name to Jacuzzi Brands in 2003

Customer: Plumbing market, irrigation market, municipal corporation, retail and institutional construction

Competition: Various other plumbing devices and valve selling companies

Collaborators: Valve plumbing devices and ancillaries’ suppliers

Context: •

Affected by macroeconomic factors, such as the unemployment rate and the availability of financing

•

Weather is an important variable for the company as it significantly impacts construction

PROBLEM STATEMENT Identifying statistical forecasting technique to improve reliability by including internal and external factors while estimating the demands of existing & new products

DEMAND PATTERNS Demand Pattern: PVB

Demand Pattern: Fire Valve 700

140,000

600

120,000

500

100,000 400 80,000 300 60,000 200

40,000 20,000

100

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

-

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

CALCULATIONS • Demand data for PVB valve displays trend and seasonality • Demand data for Fire Valve shows great fluctuations specially in quarter 12 i.e. end of year 2003 • We have used statistical tool (regression) for both product lines and come up with these results:

• Dependent Variable • Independent Variables: Unemployment Rate Bank Prime Loan Rate Housing starts

Fire Valve

PVB

Quarterly sales

Regression Statistics

Regression Statistics Multiple R

0.849569543

Multiple R

R Square

0.721768409

R Square

Adjusted R Square

0.620593284

Adjusted R Square

Standard Error

15882.12577

Standard Error

Observations

16

93901.72461

0.1137709 -0.208494227

137.7694779

Observations

Coefficients Intercept

0.337299423

16

Coefficients Intercept

284.3032379

Unemployment

-31828.02493

Unemployment

69.85951677

Bank Loan

-12795.12761

Bank Loan

28.42064017

Single Units

129.7983689

Single Units

0.023828319

Multi-Units

1859.894332

Multi-Units

-5.046836431

THANK YOU!